Bracketology for Oct. 15: Projecting the Path to PBA

In just two weeks we will have our official postseason pairings from NSAA that will map out everyone’s path to the state tournament. But, we are not patient people and why not go ahead and try to project what will happen now.

So, based on how Nebraska Prep Volleyball sees the remainder of the season playing out, here are our projected state-tournament brackets for Thursday, Oct. 15.

Class A

Projected Bracket

* – indicates wild card

(1) Omaha Marian vs. (8) Lincoln North Star*

(4) Papillion-LaVista vs. (5) Lincoln Southwest

(3) Papillion-LaVista South vs. (6) Millard West

(2) North Platte vs. (7) Lincoln Southeast

Notes

There is no reason to think Omaha Marian and North Platte won’t each win out this season, and if that is the case, Marian should hold on to first place in the NSAA wildcard point totals. Truthfully, Marian would likely hold on to the top spot even if it takes a 39 somewhere along the way and there isn’t anyone that can catch North Platte for second. The most precarious position right now belongs to Millard West at #6 in part because the Wildcats haven’t been as sharp as normal the past week and because as it stands now it would face Millard North in district play and the Mustangs will likely be the most dangerous non-hosting playoff team in Class A.

Class B

Projected Sub-State Bracket

* – indicates wild card

(1) Omaha Skutt vs. (16) Holdrege

(8) Waverly vs. (9) Platteview*

(5) Elkhorn South* vs. (12) Gering

(4) Aurora* vs. (13) Columbus

(3) Grand Island Northwest vs. (14) Norris

(6) Elkhorn* vs. (11) Seward*

(7) Omaha Gross vs. (10) Omaha Duchesne

(2) Gretna* vs. (15) Sidney

Notes

Even though Gretna sits atop of the NSAA wild card point standings today and is the top team in Class B in the Nebraska Prep Volleyball rankings, Omaha Skutt is likely to take the top seed into substate play ifit can win its next five matches. Thy Skyahwks have three 50 point opportunities with matches against Omaha Gross, Aurora and Columbus Scotus – all at home – to go with a pair of 47 point opportunities at Omaha Duchesne and Elkhorn South. If Skutt wins those match matches and wins its River Cities Conference tournament, the Skyhawks could lose in the district tournament and advance to substate as the #1 seed.

Class C-1

Projected Bracket

* – indicates wild card

(1) Kearney Catholic vs. (8) Ashland-Greenwood

(4) St. Paul* vs. (5) Chadron*

(3) Ogallala vs. (6) Columbus Scotus

(2) Ord vs. (7) Omaha Concordia

Notes

Tonight’s LouPLatte Conference Tournament championship match between Kearney Catholic and Ord could go a long ways in determining the top seed at state with Kearney Catholic currently holding a half-point lead over Ord in the wildcard standings. Chadron and Ogallala will likely meet in a district championship, and an Ogallala win there should allow the Indians to surge up to third. In another classic example of the messed-up wildcard point /postseason schedule system, North Bend Central might actually be punished for its success this year. The Tigers currently sit sixth in wild card points, just ahead of Columbus Scotus. The result means that North Bend is likely to get a better seed in the subdistrict that features the Tigers, Scotus and Columbus Lakeview. Since it will be the top seed, North Bend will likely face David City Aquinas in the first round leaving Lakeview for Scotus. Aquinas is currently 9-9 if it finishes the season under .500,that would give North Bend just 44 points for the subdistrict win, which would actually DROP its wildcard point standings while Scotus would get 47 for a subdistrict win over Lakeview. Assuming Ashland-Greenwood comes out of the C1-1 district, it is a lock for the #8 seed and the winner out of the C1-3 is locked into the #7 spot. At this point, we have Concordia winning C1-3, but it’s really a toss-up between the Mustangs, Wahoo and Bishop Neumann.

Class C-2

Projected Bracket

* – indicates wild card

(1) Guardian Angels CC vs. (8) Sandy Creek*

(4) Wisner-Pilger* vs. (5) Amherst

(3) Stanton vs. (6) Sutton

(2) Freeman vs. (7) Crofton

Notes

You have to think both Sutton and Sandy Creek of Oct. 27 highlighted on their schedules. That’s when the two teams face each other – and it also happens to be the last night that matches count toward wildcard point totals before seedings are determined for district play. Both teams are in the same subdistrict and both teams will likely be fighting for the final wild card spot depending on who does not make it out of the subdistrict. Sutton is the pick right now to earn a district title and automatic berth which would leave Sandy Creek and Centura (which is in the opposite subdistrict) to fight over final wild card spot, and currently Sandy Creek has the SLIGHT advantage at 43.9091 to 43.9000. I say they are fighting over final wildcard spot because Guardian Angels and Wisner-Pilger are in the same subdistrict, likely giving the loser of that match the first wildcard.

Class D-1

Projected Bracket

* – indicates wild card

(1) Emerson-Hubbard vs. (8) Leyton

(4) BDS* vs. (5) Howells-Dodge

(3) Bertrand* vs. (6) Lawrence-Nelson

(2) Diller-Odell vs. (7) Heartland Lutheran

Notes

Recent injuries and losses have likely cost Diller-Odell the chance to enter state as the top seed, but being healthy in postseason is most important for the Griffins as their path to state is likely to have Johnson-Brock and BDS in it, which will make getting the automatch bid difficult. Bertrand and Lawrence-Nelson are likely to meet for the D1-5 district final and then are projected to turn around and play each other again in the first round of state.

Class D-2

Projected Bracket

* – indicates wild card

(1) Exeter-Milligan vs. (8) Humphrey St. Francis

(4) Falls City Sacred Heart* vs. (5) Potter-Dix

(3) O’Neill St. Mary’s* vs. (6) Sandhills-Thedford

(2) Stuart vs. (7) Giltner

Notes

How about a rematch of the last two Class D-2 state championship matches taking place in the first round this year? Stuart’s loss to St. Mary’s should open the door for Exeter-Milligan to take the top spot if it can win its remaining games – no easy task to be sure. Giltner’s 1-5 mark in its last six matches seeds its projected seed down, but its path to state is not nearly as difficult as others. Toughest subdistrict in the state is still Class D2-2 with Exeter-Milligan (18-3), Hampton (19-4), Meridian (13-7) and Dorchester (14-10) all ranked. Meanwhile, of the 10 teams in subdistricts D2-3 and D2-4 combined, only three have winning records – Spalding Academy (12-6), Mead (12-8) and Riverside (12-9) – and none are ranked.