Two weeks from today we will know the state tournament pairings for Classes A, C-1, C-2, D-1 and D-2 and will be 24 hours away from the sub-state round in Class B.
Until then, we can only speculate what those brackets will look like. So, speculate we will. Here is our “braacketology” for Friday, Oct. 23.
Class A
Projected Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Omaha Marian vs. (8) Lincoln Southeast*
(4) Papillion-LaVista South vs. (5) Lincoln Southwest
(3) Papillion-LaVista vs. (6) Lincoln North Star
(2) North Platte vs. (7) Millard West
Notes
Changes from the last projections include the two Papillion schools changing seeds. Papillion-LaVista South still has a slim shot at moving up to the third seed, but would likely need to win the Metro Conference title to do so. Lincoln North Star moves up from an eight seed to six as the Gators are red-hot right now, winning nine of their last 10 matches. To hold off Millard West for the six seed, the Gators likely need to advance at least to finals of the Heartland Athletic Conference and hope Millard West doesn’t do the same at Metro. Aside from these eight teams, the two best shots at earning a wild card belong to Millard North and Bellevue West – but both teams would need to pull off at least two upsets next week at Metro to improve their standing. Otherwise the Mustangs and T-birds will need to pull an upset in district play.
Class B
Projected Sub-State Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Omaha Skutt vs. (16) Holdrege
(8) Waverly vs. (9) Omaha Gross
(5) Aurora* vs. (12) Columbus
(4) Elkhorn South* vs. (13) Norris*
(3) Grand Island Northwest vs. (14) Omaha Roncalli*
(6) Platteview* vs. (11) Omaha Duchesne
(7) Elkhorn* vs. (10) Seward*
(2) Gretna* vs. (15) Alliance
Notes
Some slight movement among seeds, but nothing really major from the last projections, although Platteview helped its seed tremendously by winning the Capitol Conference title and some recent losses have dropped Omaha Gross into a position of likely needing to hit the road for a sub-state match. Omaha Roncalli has been playing well lately and is projected to grab the final wild card for sub-state, but can’t afford a loss to Ralston or Nebraska City in a triangular next week. Alliance is the new projected B-8 district winner, but that could change depending on the results from the Alliance tourney tomorrow. If these match-ups hold true, we project all the home teams to win with the exception of Platteview, which we project would fall to Omaha Duchesne.
Class C-1
Projected Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Kearney Catholic vs. (8) Ashland-Greenwood
(4) Chadron* vs. (5) Omaha Concordia
(3) Ogallala vs. (6) Grand Island Central Catholic*
(2) Ord vs. (7) Columbus Scotus
Notes
Aside from the world coming to an end, Kearney Catholic and Ord are pretty much locked in as the top two seeds. Ashland-Greenwood is still the team projected to come out of the C1-1 district final and is locked into the eight spot – as is any team that would come out of that district. Seeds 3-7 are a completely up in the air yet because of the difficulty of sub-district and district fields. Currently, Chadron is ahead of Ogallala in wild card point, but it is projected that Ogallala will beat Chadron in district play and therefore switch positions. If Omaha Concordia wins its district title, it is projected that the Mustangs will jump ahead of Grand Island Central Catholic in the wild card points – based on the projection Grand Island CC falls to Kearney Catholic in its district final. St. Paul and North Bend are the two teams narrowly missing out on a state berth in these projections. Both teams can thank the messed-up NSAA postseason structure in Classes C and D for that.
Class C-2
Projected Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Guardian Angels CC vs. (8) Elgin-Pope John
(4) Sutton vs. (5) Wisner-Pilger*
(3) Stanton vs. (6) Nebraska Christian*
(2) Freeman vs. (7) North Platte St. Patrick’s
Notes
The top three seeds in Class C-2 should be set barring any major upset. After a 4-5 start, North Platte St. Patrick’s has gone 14-3 and is now projected to win the Class C2-6 district final. Wisner-Pilger and Nebraska Christian are projected to jump ahead of Ponca for the wild card spots, with Ponca and Centura just missing out. Ponca, Wisner-Pilger and Nebraska Christian are separated by just 0.12 points at the moment in the wild card standings, but Wisner-Pilger and Nebraska Christian have the better chance at helping their rating in the next two weeks.
Class D-1
Projected Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Emerson-Hubbard vs. (8) Leyton
(4) Howells-Dodge vs. (5) BDS*
(3) Diller-Odell vs. (6) Lawrence-Nelson
(2) Bertrand* vs. (7) Heartland Lutheran
Notes
No major changes since the last projections in Class D-1. A first-round match between Lawrence-Nelson and Diller-Odell, however, would be a state-championship quality match on the first day of the tournament. The Pirates of Emerson-Hubbard will need to be leery of a potential district-final match with Clearwater-Orchard, which has proved its ability to pull major upsets with its sweep of Class D-2 #1 Stuart earlier this month.
Class D-2
Projected Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Exeter-Milligan vs. (8) Giltner
(4) O’Neill St. Mary’s* vs. (5) Potter-Dix
(3) Sandhills-Thedford vs. (6) Hampton*
(2) Stuart vs. (7) Humphrey St. Francis
Notes
If Giltner is going to make a run at a three-peat in Class D-2, it looks like the Hornets will need to do it from the eight-seed spot. By winning the Crossroads Conference tournament, Exeter-Milligan has pretty much sown-up a trip to state, regardless if it earns the district title or needs to go as a wildcard. Despite being one of the hottest teams in Class D-2 and having a record of 22-5, Hampton still finds itself in a dicey situation for a state berth, being in the same subdistrict as Exeter-Milligan and trying to maintain a very slim advantage over Falls City Sacred Heart in the wildcard race.
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