Bracketology for Oct. 30: Projecting the Path to PBA
This is out final “Bracketology” of the season as the district and subdistrict tournaments get underway on Monday.
Class A
Projected Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Omaha Marian vs. (8) Lincoln Southeast
(4) Papillion-LaVista South vs. (5) Lincoln Southwest
(3) Papillion-LaVista vs. (6) Millard West
(2) North Platte vs. (7) Lincoln North Star*
Notes
There are two changes to the projections in Class A this week. Lincoln North Star’s faltering in the Heartland Athletic Conference causes it to slip behind Millard West and allows the Wildcats to move up to a six seed and drops North Star to a seven. Also, North Star’s struggles this week point to Lincoln Southeast – which defeated North Star in the HAC tournament – winning district A-7 and the wild card going to Lincoln North Star. North Star would still be seeded higher than Lincoln Southeast even with a district final loss to the Knights – UNLESS – Grand Island defeats Lincoln East in the A-1 district semifinals. A first-round loss would drop the Spartans (18-18) from a tier 2 team to a tier 3 team in NSAA wild card point calculations. That drop would cost North Star 12 wild card points compared to just six lost by Lincoln Southeast and that – combined with a loss to the Knights in the A-7 district final – would be enough to drop North Star to the eight seed.
Class B
Projected Sub-State Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Omaha Skutt vs. (16) Holdrege
(8) Omaha Gross vs. (9) Platteview*
(5) Elkhorn South* vs. (12) Sidney
(4) Aurora* vs. (13) Columbus
(3) Grand Island Northwest vs. (14) Norris*
(6) Elkhorn* vs. (11) Seward*
(7) Waverly vs. (10) Omaha Duchesne
(2) Gretna* vs. (15) Alliance*
Notes
Saturday’s River Cities Conference tournament at Omaha Skutt could have large ramifications on how substate looks in Class B. Omaha Gross, with a good showing, should be able to jump up and grab the final home match as the eight seed. Omaha Roncalli could find its way into the substate with a very strong showing, but it currently looks like it will be on the outside looking in following district play.
Class C-1
Projected Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Kearney Catholic vs. (8) Ashland-Greenwood
(4) Ogallala vs. (5) Grand Island Central Catholic*
(3) Chadron* vs. (6) Wahoo
(2) Ord vs. (7) Columbus Scotus
Notes
We are projecting that things are about to get really, really interesting in Class C-1. Chadron picked up a rash of bonus points in the past week thanks to playing – and beating – four Class B opponents. As a result, we are actually projecting that Chadron and Ord will tie with a wildcard point score of 45.500 apiece, even assuming Ogallala defeats Chadron in the C1-6 district final. If that does happen, and since Ord and Chadron have not played this year, the tie-breaker would come down to the number of Tier 1 teams played – which would give the advantage to Ord. Previously we had projected Omaha Concordia as the winner of the C1-3 district, but that has changed to Wahoo. Also, we are projecting that Grand Island CC defeats St. Paul in subdistrict play. If that does happen, we project – assuming a loss by Grand Island CC to Kearney Catholic in the district final – that GICC and St. Paul will tie for the final wild card with identical 44.727 point totals. In this case, since GICC would be 2-0 on the season against St. Paul, GICC would win the tie-breaker. Either way, it is very likely the winner of the St. Paul-Grand Island CC subdistrict match gets the final wild card and the loser must go home and lament that the NSAA has not created a substate round in Classes C & D yet.
Class C-2
Projected Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Guardian Angels CC vs. (8) Elgin-Pope John
(4) Sutton vs. (5) North Platte St. Patrick’s
(3) Stanton vs. (6) Centura*
(2) Freeman vs. (7) Nebraska Christian*
Notes
It looks as though the loaded C2-7 & C2-8 subdistricts will push through three teams to the state field. In those subdistricts, we are actually projecting Sutton to defeat Doniphan-Trumbull in the C2-4 district final to earn the automatic berth. Even with our projection of Centura falling to Donipahn-Trumbull in the first round of subdistricts and Nebraska Christian doing the same in the subdistrict final, both of those teams should be able to hold off Hartington Cedar Catholic and Wisner-Pilger by the slimmest of margins for the wild cards. Doniphan-Trumbull must earn a district title to reach state.
Class D-1
Projected Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Emerson-Hubbard vs. (8) Leyton
(4) Johnson-Brock* vs. (5) Howells-Dodge
(3) Diller-Odell vs. (6) BDS*
(2) Bertrand vs. (7) Heartland Lutheran
Notes
Here is the deal in Class D-1 – there is going to be one really, really good team that could absolutely win the state tournament that isn’t even going to make the trip to Lincoln. In this projection, that team is Lawrence-Nelson. Bertrand is projected to beat Lawrence-Nelson for the district championship, and that would leave Lawrence-Nelson less than 0.07 points behind BDS for the final wild card in these projections. Should Lawrence-Nelson defeat Bertrand, it likely leaves BDS at home.
Class D-2
Projected Bracket
* – indicates wild card
(1) Exeter-Milligan vs. (8) Giltner
(4) Stuart* vs. (5) Hampton*
(3) Sandhills-Thedford vs. (6) Potter-Dix
(2) O’Neil St. Mary’s vs. (7) Humphrey St. Francis
Notes
Class D-2 was crazy last year with playoff upsets, but if things are normal this postseason, then this field is almost locked in stone. Hampton – provided it should beat Meridian in its first-round subdistrict match (not a given by any means) should secure the second wild card. The loser between the subdistrict match of Stuart and O’Neill St. Mary’s will get the first wild card. Falls City Sacred Heart will need a district title to reach state, which would likely require a win over either Exeter-Milligan or Hampton.
