Projecting the State Tournament Field for 2016 – Part III
We are less than two weeks from the start of the 2016 state high school volleyball championships, so it is time to take a very uneducated look at what Nebraska Prep Volleyball thinks the state tournament brackets will look like.
This is the third - and final - installment of our “bracketology” this year, which takes a look at what we project to be the state tournament field in Classes A, D-1 and D-2 and what we project to be the sub-state round in Classes B, C-1 and C-2. Obviously there are a lot of intangibles that can alter how things look, but when we make our best guesses about what will happen tin the district tournaments, this is what we think things will look like.
Numbers reflect the seed of the team based on NSAA wild card point standings, not what they will be ranked.
Class A
* – indicates wild card team
(1) Papillion-LaVista vs. (8) Lincoln Southeast*
(4) Millard West vs. (5) Millard North
(3) Papillion-LaVista South vs. (6) Lincoln Pius X
(2) Omaha Marian vs. (7) Lincoln Southwest
Notes: Some changes from the last couple projections. We had been projecting a Lincoln Pius X/Millard North match-up along with a Millard West/Papillion-LaVista South match. The reasons for the change are actually quite simple. We were projecting Pius X would get a 50-point win against either Grand Island Northwest or Gretna, but neither happened, thus the Bolts drop to sixth in our projections now. Meanwhile, if you look at NSAA wild card point standings right now, Millard North is actually ahead of Millard West, however, we are projecting the Wildcats to take the #4 seed (not that it matters much) because it will earn a few points more than Millard North in district play. The thightest district tourney might be A-7 between Southwest and Southeast, but even if Southeast wins and Southwest gets the wildcard, Southwest would be higher seeded at state.
Class B
* – indicates wild card team
(1) Omaha Skutt vs. (16) Bennington
(8) Aurora vs. (9) Elkhorn South*
(5) Sidney vs. (12) Omaha Gross
(4) Elkhorn* vs. (13) Seward*
(3) Grand Island Northwest vs. (14) Alliance*
(6) Omaha Duchesne vs. (11) Omaha Roncalli*
(7) Platteview* vs. (10) Norris
(2) Gretna* vs. (15) Beatrice*
Notes: Two most interesting match-ups that we are projecting would be Omaha Gross going out to Sidney and Norris playing at Platteview. Nobody wants to play Norris right now and Gross would have a reasonable shot at the upset in Sidney. Obviously Aurora and Elkhorn South would be a great sub-state match as well. The first-round district match between Waverly and Beatrice basically is an elimination game, with the winner likely getting the final wild card berth and the loser being knocked out of wild card contention
Class C-1
* – indicates wild card team
(1) Bishop Neumann vs. (16) Auburn
(8) Lincoln Christian* vs. (9) North Bend
(5) Omaha Concordia vs. (12) Arlington*
(4) Ogallala vs. (13) Chase County*
(3) Chadron vs. (14) Wayne
(6) Kearney Catholic vs. (11) Ord
(7) Malcolm vs. (10) Grand Island Central Catholic*
(2) St. Paul vs. (15) Columbus Scotus
Notes: All three of our projections have had Malcolm facing Grand Island Central Catholic in the Class C-1 sub-state round, even though that would be a pretty good state final as well. Things could change drastically, though, if GICC were to upset St. Paul in districts or Lincoln Christian knocked off Malcolm. A potential sub-state match between Kearney Catholic and Ord would be a rematch of the thrilling five-set 2015 state title match.
Class C-2
* – indicates wild card team
(1) Crofton vs. (16) Creighton
(8) Hemingford vs. (9) Centura
(5) Stanton* vs. (12) Hastings St. Cecilia*
(4) Ponca vs. (13) Hartington Cedar Catholic*
(3) Howells-Dodge vs. (14) Twin River
(6) Doniphan-Trumbull vs. (11) Freeman
(7) Cambridge vs. (10) Southern Valley*
(2) Diller-Odell vs. (15) Archbishop Bergan
Notes: Just like in C-1, we have a potential rematch of last year's state championship in the sub-state round with the projection that Stanton will host Hastings St. Cecilia. What happens in the C2-7 subdistrict will dictate quite a bit with Howells-Dodge, Stanton, Humphrey-Lindsay Holy Family and Wisner-Pilger all capable of coming out as champion.
Class D-1
* – indicates wild card team
(1) Johnson-Brock vs. (8) Ansley-Litchfield
(4) Lutheran High Northeast vs. (5) Meridian*
(3) Elgin-Pope John* vs. (6) Guardian Angels CC
(2) Heartland vs. (7) Dundy County-Stratton
Notes: Changes in the projections this week come from LHNE projected to now win its district title over Elgin-Pope John, which helps Heartland move to the #2 seed.
Class D-2
* – indicates wild card team
(1) Hampton vs. (8) Brady
(4) Wynot vs. (5) O'Neill St. Mary's*
(3) Potter-Dix vs. (6) CWC*
(2) Exeter-Milligan vs. (7) Red Cloud
Notes: Projections are basically the same this week with the exception of Brady and Red Cloud flip-flopping spots and Wynot now being projected to beat O'Neill St. Mary's is districts, even though both seem headed towards a rematch in the first round of state anyways.
