Projecting the State Tournament Field for 2016

We are exactly four weeks away from the start of the 2016 state high school volleyball championships, so it is time to take a very uneducated look at what Nebraska Prep Volleyball thinks the state tournament brackets will look like.

Our “bracketology” takes a look at what we project to be the state tournament field in Classes A, D-1 and D-2 and what we project to be the sub-state round in Classes B, C-1 and C-2. Obviously there are a lot of intangibles that can alter how things look, but when we make our best guesses about what will happen the remainder of the regular season and in the district tournaments, this is what we think things will look like.

We will update our “bracketology” each Thursday until the brackets are released. Numbers reflect the seed of the team based on NSAA wild card point standings, not what they will be ranked.

Class A
* – indicates wild card team

(1) Papillion-LaVista vs. (8) Lincoln Southeast*
(4) Millard North vs. (5) Lincoln Pius X
(3) Papillion-LaVista South vs. (6) Millard West
(2) Omaha Marian vs. (7) Lincoln Southwest

Notes: The outcome of this weekend’s Omaha Westside Invite could scramble the projections a little bit, especially if Millard North or Lincoln Southwest were to win it. If it comes down to Papillion-LaVista and Omaha Marian in the final, regardless of the result, we think the Monarchs wild card point total will remain the highest entering the postseason. We are projecting that Lincoln Southeast will host Lincoln Southwest in the Class A-7 district but that Southwest will win that district and Southeast will claim the wild card.

Class B
* – indicates wild card team

(1) Skutt Catholic vs. (16) Bennington
(8) Elkhorn South* vs. (9) Sidney
(5) Elkhorn* vs. (12) Norris
(4) Omaha Duchesne vs. (13) Omaha Roncalli*
(6) Aurora vs. (11) Waverly*
(3) Grand Island Northwest vs. (14) Beatrice*
(7) Platteview vs. (10) Omaha Gross*
(2) Gretna* vs. (15) McCook*

Notes: An interesting thing to watch will be the race for the #8 seed between Elkhorn South and Sidney, but we project that the Storm will hold on to the #8 seed, mostly because of its stronger schedule strength. Sidney could make it interesting if it were to win the Alliance Dig Pink Invitational next weekend, but we are not projecting that to happen. Norris, after a rough start to the year, is playing like a top-5 team in Class B, so the Titans are a land mine waiting for some higher seed in the postseason and right now we are projecting them to meet Elkhorn for a trip to state.

Class C-1
* – indicates wild card team

(1) Chadron vs. (16) Syracuse
(8) Malcolm* vs. (9) Omaha Concordia
(5) St. Paul vs. (12) Arlington*
(4) Ogallala vs. (13) North Bend Central
(3) Kearney Catholic vs. (14) Wayne
(6) Lincoln Christian vs. (11) Chase County*
(7) Grand Island Central Catholic* vs. (10) Ord
(2) Bishop Neumann vs. (15) Columbus Scotus

Notes: The first-year of sub-state in Class C-1 works the way it is designed to work. It ensures that the best teams control their own destiny when it comes to reaching state – and that’s all you can ask for. We are projecting that Chadron overtakes Neumann for the top spot in wild card standings. We are also projecting Kearney Catholic to get some big wins in the final weeks of the season to boost them up to the #3 spot. Malcolm has a huge match at Neumann a week from today that could boost their seeding if the Clippers can pull the upset. If these projections hold true, 8-9 and 7-10 matches will be wars. And, you have to think Scotus as a #15 seed would be scary for Neumann.

Class C-2
* – indicates wild card team

(1) Diller-Odell vs. (16) Creighton
(8) Hemingford vs. (9) Southern Valley*
(5) Cambridge vs. (12) Freeman
(4) Crofton vs. (13) Hastings St. Cecilia*
(3) Doniphan-Trumbull vs. (14) Centura
(6) Stanton* vs. (11) Hartington Cedar Catholic*
(7) Ponca vs. (10) Twin River
(2) Howells-Dodge vs. (15) Archbishop Bergan

Notes: A potential Stanton-Hartington Cedar Catholic sub-state match would be interesting with the teams having split two meetings already this year. We project defending champs Hastings St. Cecilia getting in thanks to the substate round this year and would be a very difficult challenge for Crofton, as would be Freeman as a #12 seed against Cambridge. A potential match between Bergan and Howells-Dodge would be a great one.

Class D-1
* – indicates wild card team

(1) Elgin/Pope John vs. (8) Bertrand
(4) Meridian* vs. (5) Lutheran High Northeast*
(3) Heartland vs. (6) Alma
(2) Johnson-Brock vs. (7) Guardian Angels CC

Notes: In Class D-1 we are reminded again of why ALL non-Class A divisions should be in a sub-state format. If current projections hold true, three of the top nine teams in the NSAA wild card point standings won’t go to state because of an NSAA policy. So, to summarize, the NSAA policy against substate in D-1 will keep three of what it considers to be the best nine teams in the class at home for state. It baffles the mind how in one breath the NSAA can say these are the top eight teams, and then in another breath say they are going to use a system designed to not allow the top eight teams to get to state. So foolish. Anyway, teams punished this year for no reason, according to our projects at least, will be Dundy County-Stratton, Blue Hill and BDS. We are projecting Bertrand to come out of the D1-6 district over subdistrict mate Dundy-County Stratton. Blue Hill and Heartland are in the same subdistrict and we are projecting Heartland to be the D1-4 champ. BDS has the unfortunate luck to be in the same district as Meridian and Johnson-Brock.

Class D-2
* – indicates wild card team

(1) Potter-Dix vs. (8) Axtell
(4) Wynot* vs. (5) O’Neill St. Mary’s
(3) Exeter-Milligan vs. (6) CWC*
(2) Hampton vs. (7) Brady

Notes: The top four teams left out of the state tournament field we are projecting would be Red Cloud, Falls City Sacred Heart, Sandhills-Thedford and Wallace. Not to beat a dead horse, but the lack of substate shows up here again as we project that both wild cards will be used by teams in the same district (D2-2) that we are projecting O’Neill St. Mary’s to win – the result of the NSAA putting three of the top six teams in the same district.