A Look at Who Teams Rely on Most Offensively
Photo Credit: McCook Gazette Personally, I’m a math geek. I love numbers. For me it all started as a kid collecting baseball cards and getting lost in all the stats on the back of them. I would spend hours…
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Continue ReadingPhoto Credit: McCook Gazette
Personally, I’m a math geek. I love numbers. For me it all started as a kid collecting baseball cards and getting lost in all the stats on the back of them. I would spend hours comparing players against each other. Yes, it made me a nerd, but it made me pretty decent at math. That paid off when I let a really cute girl cheat off me in freshman Algebra. We’ve now been married more than 24 years. But, I’m digressing quickly.
Volleyball is full of awesome statistics as well. As we all know, so much goes into a successful volleyball team. You’ve got to have strong serving, great serve receive and passing, a setter able to get the ball in the right place to the right person and people who can then terminate. Ultimately, though, the very best teams have “that player” they can go to in order to get the big kills at the big moments. That’s what separates the good teams from the really good and great teams.
One of the things I’ve commonly heard over the years is the thought that, “they set (insert player name) too much.” In some cases I can agree with that, but generally I’m thinking to myself, “they AREN’T setting (insert player name) enough.” So, this year I started paying more attention to who was getting how many swings and how that related in percentage terms to the team. And, conversely, how successful that team was.
I’m by no means a statistical theory master nor even qualified to coach a YMCA volleyball team, so I’m not drawing any conclusion here with this data. Rather, just sharing what I’ve found because, well, I find it interesting and hope that you will as well.
I took a look at the top 15 kill leaders in the state (as of Oct. 11) and an additional 10 more that took a large percentage of their team’s swings. I did not look at any player with less than 200 kills on the season.
On the left is how those 25 players look when ranked by the percentage of their team’s swings that they are taking. Leading the way is Wauneta-Palisade 6’0 senior Faith Simpson, who is pictured above. On the right is how those players rank when you look at how many swings those same players take on a per-set basis. It’s also important to note that all this info comes from MaxPreps, so players on teams that don’t post stats or have incomplete stats weren’t able to be included.
Everyone will probably have their own take aways from this info, but here are a few things that really jumped out at me when putting this together.
For my money, right now the state Player of the Year race has three horses – Malcolm’s Jaela Zimmerman, Papillion-LaVista South’s Taliyah Flores and North Bend’s Kristin Lux. North Bend doesn’t post stats, so we’re left with Zimmerman and Flores to look at.
Let’s start with Zimmerman, who is probably the most efficient attacker in the state considering she’s hitting .561 and has a mind-boggling low 39 errors in 517 swings. With the Clippers losing Hayley Densberger from last year’s squad, you would think Zimmerman’s workload is way up this season. It’s not. Zimmerman is taking 42.5% of her team’s swings and the Creighton recruit takes 10.3 swings a set – a relatively low number all things considered thanks to her efficiency. Last season, Zimmerman was taking 10.8 swings per set. Again, that number is down likely because Zimmerman continues to improve and is so good at controlling her powerful shot. For my money, she’s my choice if I had to pick one player who has to get me a kill to win a match.
I’ll be honest – I thought North Dakota recruit Flores would have a higher percentage of her team’s swings as well as swings per set. Flores has to work harder for her kills than Zimmerman, partly because she’s six inches shorter and because she’s facing bigger, better blocks on a more consistent basis. Flores is hitting .274 and her 84 errors in 76 sets is a really good ratio at the Class A level. Flores also plays at a Division I libero level in the back row, which eventually takes its toll over the course of a long match.
You want to know why Lincoln Southwest perhaps represents that city’s best chance to bring home a Class A title in several years? It’s the growth and development of Jaden Ferguson, who has become “that player” for the Silver Hawks. In fact, as you go through the lists you will find that having “that player” translates into having a pretty dang good team.
Wauneta-Palisade hasn’t been to state since 2005 but Faith Simpson has the team at 16-4 and primed to get to Lincoln. Humphrey-Lindsay Holy Family has been to state only once – Taya Beller, a Wayne State recruit, has her team at 16-7.
Minden could have been one of the top teams in Class C-1 this year until Kyla Swanson’s family move to Wahoo for a new job this summer. I, frankly, had written Minden off a little bit, but Jensen Rowse stepped up big time and has the Whippets at 13-11.
Kalynn Meyer and her Superior teammates are at 19-3 – not bad for a program that has been to state once (2008) in school history. 2008 is also the last time Hastings has been to state and, yet, thanks to Cecilia Beahm emerging as one of “those players” the Tigers are 14-5 and a team you probably don’t want to face in the Class B substate round.
How has Archbishop Bergan gone from a pretty good team to one of the best in the Centennial Conference and in C-2 overall? It’s because Lexie Langley is one of the top terminators in the state. Having Sue Wewel back coaching has helped as well – just wanted to throw that kudos out there.
In fact, only one of those 25 players is on a team that does not have a winning record as of today, and that’s Makenna Kirk of 13-15 Lincoln Northeast, a team which has far exceeded what my expectations for them were this year.
Just three more things I want to point out that I found really interesting.
Nora Sis is a pretty special freshman. Not only does she leads all freshmen in the state in kills by a considerable margin, but she is incredible efficient. Not only has she taken the most swings for one of the top Class A teams in the state but she only has 49 errors in 69 sets. That’s amazing poise for a young player to come into a program like Papio and play like that. Consider that against one of the top teams in the nation – St. James Academy – she had eight kills on 24 swings without an error.
I’ve always loved Melanie Brecka and the way she plays. She’s a phenomenal athlete and plays with such controlled aggression. As of today she is fourth in the state in kills with 341 and she’s getting less than three of every 10 attacks for Lincoln Southeast and just 9.2 swings a set! That girl needs more swings. FEED THE BEAST Lincoln Southeast – FEED IT!
Similarly, look at Emily Krolikowski at Centura. The Centurions are state title contenders in Class C-2 and, in my opinion, one of the top 20-ish teams in the state regardless of class and Krolikowski is a big reason why. She’s probably the best player you’ve never seen play. The Hastings College recruit getting just 7.7 swings per set and gets 4.03 kills per set. Think about that for a moment. That means 52.4% of the time Krolikowski gets set it’s a point for Centura. Add to that the fact that she has just 47 errors in 55 sets and this is what happens every time Krolikowski gets a set:
52.4% of the time Centura scores a point
36.5% of the time the rally continues
11.1% of the time Centura’s opponent scores a point
Ok, I’m done nerding out over volleyball stats….for now. Just remember, great teams have a great player that takes a majority of a team’s swings. If you have one of “those players” consider yourself lucky.
And, with just over three weeks left in the high school season, it’s time for teams to ride those thoroughbreds to the finish line.