Initial Powerpoint Reactions

The AIA officially dropped their initial powerpoint rankings for volleyball on Tuesday. Now the exact formula for powerpoints is a complex mathematical equation that is very hard to figure out, it is literally a 19 page packet for the one formula. You can read that here: <a href="https://fliphtml5.com/sdyu/suvz/basic">Powerpoint Formula</a>   From the AIA website the easiest way to explain it would be:   “A simple answer for how the algorithm works?”   “The algorithm is not predictive and analyzes past games as opposed to projecting an outcome.  After analyzing thousands of games nationwide, the algorithm places teams in order.”   In even easier terms, the more you win.. the higher in the rankings you should be and if you beat quality opponents that helps even more. Even losses against quality opponents don't hurt you as much as you think.    Today we will go through each conference's initial rankings and talk about some surprises, future match ups, and other notes from each rankings. If you did not know rankings are updated each day at noon and can be found here: <a href="https://azpreps365.com/rankings/volleyball-girls/6a">AIA Rankings</a>   6A Conference:   Initial Scout Thoughts: 6A is going to be a fun playoff to attend to say the least. For the first rankings it kind of went how we thought, the top 3 teams we see are the top 3 teams in the rankings in Xaiver, Corona Del Sol, and Casteel. All 3 did extremely well at the Durango Classic and all 3 have played challenging non conference schedules to date. When determining the biggest games that will impact the rankings we see that almost every team ranked in the top 10, has between 3-5 match ups left with teams in the top 10. It is going to be an insane last month of the season watching so many great matches and rankings being so volatile. We will also get multiple chances to see revenge games and opportunities for massive jumps with so many match ups.    Surprises: Liberty being ranked 13th is a surprise but I would expect them to continue to climb the rankings as the season progresses. They recently got one of their transfers back and eligible since they have played the required number of powerpoint games so moving forward they will be an even tougher match up.    Biggest games that will impact rankings:   10/7: Xavier vs Casteel    10/14: Liberty vs Pinnacle    10/14: Casteel vs Hamilton   10/16: Xavier vs Corona Del Sol   10/16: Sandra Day O'Connor vs Sunnyslope   10/16: Millennium vs Desert Vista   5A Conference:   Initial Scout Thoughts: Looking at the first rankings we see 3 teams from the same region ranked in the top 6 with Chaparral, Horizon, and Notre Dame Prep all ranked there. Combined we still have 5 more match ups between those 3 teams in some combination so expect changes as they continue to play each other. Today we actually got a high impact game after the initial rankings with Centennial vs Sunrise Mountain. We will be in that game to see how the top teams in the 5A conference stack up against each other. Shoutout to Desert Mountain who might have had the toughest 7 games to start the season. They are currently 2-5 but ranked in the top 16 which shows the quality of opponents they have played so far this season. If the season ended and these were playoff match ups, we see multiple teams ranked in the 9-16 range that could make a run to the quarterfinals very easily. Some of these top teams need to hope to avoid certain top tier programs as we continue to progress through the season.    Surprises: Buckeye being ranked 17th was a surprise. They had an impressive showing at the Epic Tourney volleyball tournament and have started the season 5-2. Moving forward they will be a tough out for any play-in team that would draw them once stat starts. They do have an opportunity to prove themselves and move up with region match ups against Verrado and Canyon View both ranked above them. Shoutout to Alhambra for being 7-4 and being 1 spot away from a play in game. We love seeing the work the Lions are doing and they have a big match up with McClintock in a couple of weeks that could determine if they get into the playoffs or not.   Biggest games that will impact rankings:   10/1: Centennial vs Sunrise Mountain   10/2: Canyon Del Oro vs Cienega   10/15: Maricopa vs Salpointe   10/20: Notre Dame vs Desert Mountain   10/22: Horizon vs Chaparral   10/29: Ironwood vs Willow Canyon   4A Conference:   Initial Scout Thoughts: The non valley schools are dominating the rankings! We see 5 of the top 6 teams from outside the valley in the initial rankings. We also see every team ranked in the top 8 only have 1 loss as well. 4A is a conference that doesn't leave a lot of room for error at the top. In order to get those home games for playoffs you will have to keep the losses to a minimum. Saguaro, Arcadia, and Estrella Foothills are all teams below the top 10 that would present difficult first round match ups if the season ended today. Once region play gets started we do see these moving up the rankings but for now those 3 would be a tough out for a top 8 team. The best part of region play is going to be to see who gets those autobids in 4A as well. I know a lot of these teams have higher ambitions over a region title but winning the region and getting that autobid is always important!   Surprises: St. Mary's being ranked 19th was a bit of a shock. They have done well and played a tough non conference schedule but the algorithm let them down by only having them 19th. However they do get the opportunity to rise up the rankings as they are in a region with 3 teams ranked above them. This will give them 6 opportunities to show they are worthy of being moved up and show they are not worth that initial ranking. Cactus being 8-1 was a great showing. Having one of the top freshmen in the state coming into your school instantly elevates you to a higher status. At this same point last year they were 4-5, and trying to sneak into the playoffs. This year with a new head coach and a star freshman in [player_tooltip player_id='883366' first='Addison' last='Martin'], they helped leap to new heights on the verge of a top 8 ranking.    Biggest games that will impact rankings:   10/1: Flagstaff vs Prescott   10/8: Estrella Foothills vs Cactus   10/9: Ironwood Ridge vs Mica Mountain   10/13: Mesquite vs Cactus Shadows   10/15: ALA Gilbert North vs ALA Queen Creek   10/27: Mica Mountain vs Salpointe   3A Conference:   Initial Scout Thoughts: Top 3 teams kind of went how we expect with Valley Christian, Gilbert Chrisitan, and Northwest Christian all ranked up there. Yuma Catholic is a good team who may be under ranked at 12th. They sit at 8-1 and will have a few opportunities to move up with some great region match ups coming up for them. The difference between 7th and 12th is only 1.5 points so lots of chances for teams to make jumps. All roads are still oging to lead through Valley Chrsitian as they are above 20 points in the powerpoints and we don't see anyone being able to catch them.    Surprises: Payson and Empire are our two biggest surprises. Payson because we see them ranked 6th overall, but are excited to see them compete against NWC to test that ranking out. They have been impressive to start the year but now with region play coming we will really see where they fall. We also are surprised by Empire because both of their losses are against bigger conference schools (including a 6A). It seems they were punished by being ranked 10th in the initial rankings. That will be a tough team to get out once state starts by the level of competition they've been playing.    Biggest games that will impact rankings:   10/1: Monument Valley vs Window Rock   10/8: Empire vs Safford   10/14: Florence vs Valley Christian   10/14: Snowflake vs Show Low   10/16: Northwest Christian vs Gilbert Christian   10/23: Payson vs Northwest Christian   2A Conference:   Initial Scout Thoughts: 4 of the top 5 played out how we thought. SCA and PCDS being 1-2 is a path to the state finals for sure. The semi finals should be each of those teams on separate sides of the bracket. Trivium and NVCA are both teams that will challenge them for a spot in the finals. At the moment we would get all 4 of those teams in a direct path to the semi finals. However looking down the bracket there are some teams that would like a say before we just pencil in these 4 to the semi finals. Rancho Solano being ranked 12th is not a team you want to see in the playoffs. Recently they took PCDS to 5 sets before losing a heartbreaker of a match. Northland Prep had to battle some injury bugs earlier this season but seems to be back and rolling. Them being ranked 18th is not where we should see them by season's end.    Surprises: Round Valley and Benson both being ranked in the top 7 is great to see. Both of these teams have done their job by winning their non conference games to set them up for region play. Tempe Prep has their highest powerpoint rankings in 7 years with being ranked #11. Look for the Knights to continue to surprise as the season progresses.    Biggest games that will impact rankings:   10/2: Trivium Prep vs NVCA   10/2: Veritas vs Tempe Prep   10/6: Round Valley vs Northland Prep   10/15: PCDS vs Trivium Prep   10/22: SCA vs Rancho Soloano   10/28: SCA vs Camp Verde   1A Conference:   Initial Scout Thoughts: Cicero Prep being ranked #1 is about all we got right so far from our initial rankings and mid season update. They are far and way ahead of the rest of the field and the only team with double digit power points. Behind them we see a number of teams that could give them a run for their money come the state playoffs. North Phoenix Prep had a great match up vs Cicero early this season with all sets going to the 20s and even one going extra points. Further down the rankings we like Joseph City and St. David being rewarded for their tough non-conference schedule by both being ranked in the top 5. El Capitan being ranked 11th is a dangerous team to be on the lookout for if they stay down there for state. The defending state runners up had a tough start to the season but are starting to roll now that region play has started.    Surprises: Mogollon being ranked 15th shocked us a bit, we understand that they have played a tough non conference schedule but the formula did them no justice in having them ranked that low. We would expect them to rise in the rankings based on their schedule moving forward. We see them having the opportunity to beat some good opponents and that should shoot them up into the top 8 by season's end.    Biggest games that will impact rankings:   9/30: Ash Fork vs Mogollon   10/15: St. David vs Patagonia Union   10/17: WIlliams vs El Capitan   10/17: Cicero vs PCDS   10/28: North Phoenix Prep vs Anthem Prep   10/28: Joseph City vs Williams

The AIA officially dropped their initial powerpoint rankings for volleyball on Tuesday. Now the exact formula for powerpoints is a complex mathematical equation that is very hard to figure out, it is literally a 19 page packet for the one formula. You can read that here: Powerpoint Formula